Credit Agricole on the Australian dollar, putting their bearish hats on in an overnight note

  • have a downside target of 0.7000, stop loss at 0.7510

CA say the easing of trade tensions from the US/China meeting is only temporary. AUD rally has been driven by 2 themes:

  • a less hawkish FOMC
  • diminishing China-US trade tensions

They say: We think that neither of these reliefs for the AUD will last

  • expect the Fed to stay hawkish
  • expect four rate hikes in 2019 (one each quarter)
  • RBA in no hurry to raise rates
  • China and the US - still a wide gulf between the two on trade, not likely to reach agreement in the 90 day time frame set

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ps. RBA day today: