UBS economists have a group of leading indicators of the Australian economy they refer to as “super leaders” – data on the labor market, housing, consumer confidence and retail sales. From a client note:

  • Analysis of the super leaders shows, in UBS’ view, the Australian economy is pointing to a better Q3
  • Weekly job ads from (job website) SEEK indicate a modest 2% gain in ANZ’s monthly job ads series – this would translate to a 8% growth y/y, the performance best since 2011
  • Weekly retail sales series suggest that while July is flat there should be a (albeit modest) +0.5% m/m for August
  • ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence conitnues to show the post-budget rebound in the monthly Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index will be maintained
  • Home lending data shows a further rise

UBS conclude:

  • “Overall, our super-leaders have – over the past couple of weeks – continued to hold onto their post-Budget rebound, and continue to point to a recovery in the economy’s momentum into Q3, after a likely slower Q2 GDP print”

While I’m on the subject of UBS analysis, the good people over at eFX have a specific AUD/USD view from UBS, but also specifics on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and … flavour of the week … USD/CAD!

  • USD/CAD: View is unchanged. We prefer to remain long and add on dips to 1.0920 with stops below 1.0850, for 1.1000. Watch US and Canada GDP on Thursday and Friday respectively

More from eFX available at their site