UK DATA: Mar Retail Sales +1.8% m/m; +3.3% y/y; median +0.4%; +1.4%
–Mar Retail Sales Rise Strongest Since Jan 2011
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Retail sales rocketed 1.8% m/m in March, way above the median for a 0.4%
m/m gain. Sales were boosted by higher auto fuel due to the petrol
strike but even excluding this volumes were up 1.5% ex fuel. NS cited
the warmer weather which boosted clothing and footwear sales which were
up 2.3% m/m. Non-food sales in general were strong up 3%, helped by a
6.2% m/m rise in ‘other’ store sales. Over Q1 as a whole volumes were up
0.8% q/q, far more than anyone had been forecasting and this could lead
some analysts to up their GDP forecasts a little for the quarter. While
special factors have pushed up sales this month, and we’d expect to see
some pullback, next month, these figures will strengthen the view for no
more QE at the May MPC meeting.