A look at the key seats in the election this year and what time they will be declaring their results later today
- Here's what you need to know ahead of the UK election later this week
- Here is a heads up for the key times to watch for UK election results
- A snapshot pic of the final UK election polls - Cons still ahead
It's election day! Now, I'm just going to dive straight into the details in this post here. If you need more background about the election i.e. polls and timings, you can check out our other previews and primers as highlighted above (⬆️).
The first seats declaring
This could be as early as around 2300 GMT (yes, just one hour after the polling stations close) but they will be northern seats so the expectation is that we should see Labour keep control of them. If anything, just watch for any further narrowing in the Labour majority as that could be a precursor to how Jeremy Corbyn's night is going to pan out.
The 'red wall'
This is something I've been talking about since the start of the week. Essentially, these are seats where Labour are keeping a stronghold over but it is the place where Boris Johnson is trying to break through in order to try and boost his odds for a majority.
It is tough for the Conservatives to rely on the usual swing seats, so Johnson's strategy is to try and breach the 'red wall' by leveraging off Corbyn's fading popularity in some of these areas - especially the marginals (I highlighted the key ones).
These seats should start declaring from around 0100 GMT with the results to come thick and fast from 0200 GMT onwards, so keep an eye on that.
"Portillo moment"?
There could be many potential ones during the night but perhaps this is the most relevant one to keep an eye out for. Dominic Raab will be battling against the Lib Dems on this one. If he loses, it could be a real chink in the Brexit armor for the Conservatives.
Tories have to watch their back
As they launch an offensive against the 'red wall', the Conservatives will have to make sure that they don't surrender any further ground to Labour. If Corbyn is to enjoy a good night out on the town, these are the seats he needs to try and make some headway in.
As such, if the Conservatives lose ground here, it may potentially undo any good work they can possibly achieve in trying to breach the 'red wall'.
The outside runner
There has been plenty of talk about the revival of the Lib Dems but considering how this election may end up being a divide in Brexit opinions, they could be very well be caught in the middle with nothing much to shout about.
That said, if they are to make waves, these seats will be the ones to watch for. Any swing away from the Conservatives especially will put a serious dent on Johnson's majority bid.
The Scottish risk
The SNP may also be one to potentially spoil Johnson's night so keep an eye on these seats as well just in case. If anything, a win here for the SNP may embolden calls for another Scottish referendum but just take note that some of the seats they are looking to keep are also marginals so it could swing either way.
The election playbook
The exit polls will be released around 2230 GMT to 2300 GMT so look towards that as being the first real driver of pound sentiment. Afterwards, it will all come down to the results in the key seats that I highlighted above.
Generally, you can expect some indication around 0100 GMT already but the slew of results should trickle in some time between 0200 GMT to 0300 GMT. Depending on what the exit polls say, watch for any breaches in the 'red wall' first and foremost.
If Labour manages to keep the 'red wall' in tact, it diminishes the odds of a Conservative majority. During the time, watch also for the key seats that the Conservatives have to defend - including possible "Portillo moments" in Raab or even Johnson's own seat.
Around 0400 GMT to 0500 GMT, it should be clear where things stand - especially when it comes to seats contested by the Lib Dems and the SNP - so we can get a better overview of what the final result will be.
That said, markets should already be reacting and pricing in such an outcome as the key results trickle in - since we should all already get a sense of how things are playing out.
