Coming up at 0830GMT today from the UK, CPI data for May
Previews, with some divergence in expectations
Barclays:
- We expect CPIH inflation to come in at 2.3%y/y in May (up 0.1pp from April) while CPI remains unchanged (2.4%y/y) and core CPI drops by 0.1pp to 2.0%y/y.
- The support for higher prices is expected to come from transport (fuel and air fares) and to some extent from housing costs while the rest of the component should print soft. Finally, we see RPI softer at 3.3%y/y after 3.4%y/y.
Daiwa:
- We expect the May CPI inflation release on Wednesday to show the headline rate nudging up by 0.1ppt to 2.5%Y/Y, partly in light of higher fuel prices.
- But we expect core CPI to inch higher too.
- The rise in oil prices will also impact other parts of the inflation pipeline, boosting both producer price input and output readings, which are due out at the same time.
Nomura:
- We forecast a 0.1pp fall in CPI inflation in May (to 2.3%), with the risks to the upside.
- Reasons for a fall are: negative base effects related to household energy and recreation prices more than offsetting the upside from transport costs. An unchanged RPI-CPI wedge suggests a fall in RPI inflation to 3.3%.
