The employment/labour report from the UK today is due at 0830GMT
Earnings will be of particular note, especially in light of concerns expressed by boee Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane:
Previews:
Barclays:
- Despite some higher jobless numbers we expect the unemployment rate to move sideways at 4.2% for the fourth consecutive month.
- We also expect headline and core average weekly earnings to remain unchanged at 2.5% 3m/y and 2.8% 3m/y, respectively.
RBC:
- on Tuesday, is this month's labour market report which will cover developments up to the end of May. It looks as though it will be difficult for the labour market to keep up the pace of job creation of late, not least as February's bumper m/m gain of just over 200k jobs will fall out of the 3m/3m calculation.
- As a result, some easing from last month's +146k 3m/3m is likely. A slight tick-up in the unemployment rate to 4.3% could also be on the cards.
- Again, the average wage earnings data will likely garner most focus. Here we look for earning growth to slow slightly, to 2.4% y/y (2.7% y/y on the excluding bonus measure). However, the MPC appear to be looking at a wider range of information on wage developments than just the ONS earnings series.
- In his most recent speech, Chief Economist Andy Haldane was relatively bullish on the prospects for wage inflation despite what he referred to as 'undulations in shorter-run measures'. With other sources such as the Bank's Agents Reports continuing to flag recruitment difficulties and rising pay settlements that is likely to remain the case despite what this month's release may show.
(bolding above is mine)
