Latest data released by ONS - 16 July 2020
- Prior 528.9k; revised to 566.4k
- Claimant count rate 7.3%
- Prior 7.8%; revised to 7.4%
- May ILO unemployment rate 3.9% vs 4.2% expected
- Prior 3.9%
- May employment change -125k vs -275k expected
- Prior 6k
- May average weekly earnings -0.3% vs -0.5% 3m/y expected
- Prior +1.0%
- May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +0.7% vs +0.5% 3m/y expected
- Prior +1.7%
Slight delay in the release by the source. Jobless claims surprisingly fell in June after peaking in April, amid the slight easing of lockdown restrictions but as whole that is certainly a positive takeaway. Then again, the government's furlough scheme sort of clouds this area a little so it is hard to draw much conclusions at this stage.
What is more depressing is that pay growth actually fell into negative territory for the first time since 2014. This is also a direct result of furlough but it isn't a healthy sign for price pressures in general but once again, we may only get a better idea of things come Q4.
