UK Q4 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q expected

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Latest data released by ONS - 11 February 2019

  • Prior (Q3) +0.6%
  • GDP +1.3% vs +1.4% y/y expected
  • Prior (Q3) +1.5%
  • Private consumption +0.4% vs +0.3% q/q expected
  • Government spending +1.4% vs +0.5% q/q expected
  • Gross fixed capital formation -0.5% vs -0.1% q/q expected
  • Total business investment -1.4% vs -1.0% q/q expected
  • Exports +0.9% vs +1.0% q/q expected
  • Prior +2.7%; revised to +1.1%
  • Imports +1.3% vs +1.0% q/q expected
  • Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.8%
Disappointing figures across the board as the main drag is business investment, not to much surprise given Brexit uncertainty weighing on the economy. The December month itself saw a notable drop in economic activity and that is leading to the weaker-than-expected figure here.

That has dragged the pound lower on the day with cable breaking below the 1.2900 handle now to a low of 1.2895.

Despite the poor report here, the main issue that is leading to all this is Brexit uncertainty so much like what happened with the BOE last week, don't expect the pound to take a nosedive just on this report alone. It's all about what happens next in Brexit for the quid.

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