Latest data released by ONS - 12 February 2021

  • Prior (Q3) +16.0%
  • GDP -7.8% vs -8.1% y/y expected
  • Prior (Q3) -8.6%
  • Private consumption -0.2% vs -0.2% q/q expected
  • Prior +19.5%
  • Government spending +6.4% vs +1.3% q/q expected
  • Prior +10.4%
  • Exports +0.1% vs +6.4% q/q expected
  • Prior -0.4%
  • Imports +8.9% vs +11.0% q/q expected
  • Prior +11.7%

Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline beat out estimates as the UK economy performed admirably towards the end of last year, despite the fact that there was a one-month lockdown observed during November.

That is some added good news for the Q1 outlook considering the tighter restrictions now, although business conditions are looking more subdued relative to Q4 last year.

Post-Brexit concerns for businesses will only add to the uncertain outlook this year, but at least the vaccination rollout is progressing smoothly thus far.

As a whole for 2020, the UK economy shrank by 9.9% - the most since 1709.

Cable keeps steady around 1.3800, little changed from the data release.