UK wages and jobs data now out 15 Nov

  • 2.3% prev revised up from 2.2%
  • wages ex bonus 2.2% as exp/prev
  • Oct employment change 3M/3M -14k vs 52k exp vs 94k prev
  • jobless claims change 1.1k vs 2.6k prev revised up from 1.1k
  • claimant count rate 2.3% as prev
  • unemployment rate 4.3% as exp/prev

GBPUSD spikes on the headline but slightly softer jobs report and runs into seller. Now 1.3200 again. Latest productivity estimate is up 0.9%, fastest since Q2 2011.

ONS on wages:

  • Comparing the three months to September 2017 with the same period in 2016, real AWE (total pay) fell by 0.4%, that is, 0.2 percentage points lower than the three months to August 2017
  • Nominal AWE (total pay) grew by 2.2% in the three months to September 2017, while the CPIH increased by 2.8% in the year to September 2017. In the same three-month period, real AWE (regular pay) fell by 0.5%, that is, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same three months to August 2017.
  • Nominal AWE (regular pay) rose by 2.2% in the three months to September 2017.

On jobs the ONS says:

  • Employment has fallen for the first time since October 2016 and largest drop since Apr-Jun 2015(-45K)
  • There were 32.06 million people in work, 14,000 fewer than for April to June 2017 but 279,000 more than for a year earlier.
  • The employment rate fell 0.1% 3M to Sep, but still up 0.6% versus a year ago
  • Real wages still negative on an annual basis, both total and ex-Bonus fell, -0.5% and 0.4% respectively
  • Vacancies rose 6K on the quarter to 780K
  • Inactivity rate rose 117K (0.3%) on the quarter to 8.86M (21.6%)
  • Q3 productivity growth rate strongest for 6-years, however only up 0.6% over 12-months

Full reports here