NIESR says that there is a 25% chance that the UK is already experiencing a technical recession

  • Sees odds of a no-deal Brexit at 40%
  • Sees a possibility of a severe downturn in the case of a disorderly, no-deal Brexit
  • But current forecast assumes a no-deal Brexit is avoided
  • Sees 2019 GDP growth at 1.2%, 2020 GDP growth at 1.1% under that assumption

NIESR surveys/readings used to have more weight before the ONS released their own version of monthly GDP data. That said, just be aware of their view towards as this is reflective of what UK data points have been suggesting over the last few months.

We haven't really had much of a glimpse of Q3 data from the UK as of yet but if they aren't going to be any better than in Q2, there is a distinct likelihood of the economy falling into a technical recession this year.

Current forecasts are showing that UK economic growth has declined by roughly 0.1% to 0.2% in Q2 so that doesn't make for good reading when the preliminary GDP data is set to be released in two weeks' time on 9 August.