Comments via TD on what to expect from the Dec data:

  • Retail sales probably fell for a third straight month.
  • The auto and gasoline components likely rose, but spending at bars and restaurants probably plunged. due to COVID restrictions.
  • The control series probably fell sharply as well, with holiday spending up less than allowed for by the seasonal factors.
  • That said, we estimate total sales were up 3.2% y/y