The FOMC is not the only game in town Wednesday (for from it)
This, for example:
- Trump, House & Senate tax negotiators to meet Wednesday
- Heads up for US President Trump to speak on Wednesday - on tax
But, after the firm PPI on Tuesday:
Eyes turn now to consumer level inflation.
Previews:
Barclays:
- We forecast headline CPI at 0.4% m/m and 2.3% y/y. For core CPI, we forecast 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. For the NSA CPI index, we expect a reading of 246.9.
HSBC:
- There are some signs that rental inflation has stabilised recently after a period of noticeable softness earlier in the year. The monthly increase in the "owners' equivalent rent" price index averaged 0.22% from January through May but 0.29% from June through October. Given the sizeable weight of rents in the core CPI, faster increases in rents could be a key factor for the core inflation outlook.
- We forecast that the core CPI rose 0.2% in November (0.20% unrounded), with the y-o-y rate holding steady at 1.8%. We forecast the headline CPI rose 0.4% (0.43% unrounded), including a 6.8% increase in gasoline prices.
- We expect the y-o-y rate rose to 2.2% in November from 2.0% in October.
CIBC:
- Higher gasoline prices will support a strong headline gain of 0.4% when November CPI data is released. That should lift headline inflation up to 2.3%, even with only a modest contribution from food prices during the month.
- That said, underlying momentum in consumer prices will likely remain muted. A trend-like 0.2% gain for core CPI in November will leave that stripped down measure of inflation still running at 1.8%.
- Consumer prices will need to pick up the pace next year for the Fed to continue on its normalization path after a hike next week.