US DATA: July trade bal -$44.8b, a 13% improvement (biggest since
Feb’09) and far narrower than expected, as exports rebounded +$6.2b and
imports -$0.5b. Export gain was centered in oil ($1.7b in related
items), cap goods +$2.2b (electronics, telcom rose, with civ aircraft
+$196m), autos +$1.3b. Services exports also jumped $0.5b due mainly to
travel. Import drop was mainly in oil where price and volume fell,
offset by +$2.9b autos (Japan effect from going back on line). NSA trade
gap by country: China -$27b (highest since Sep’10 as imports of cap
goods jumped) vs -$26.7b in Jun, Japan -$5.25b vs -$4b (as imports of
autos/parts surged to highest since Feb’08), OPEC -$11.9b vs -$13.8b.
Real trade gap in Jul stands $2b narrower than the Q2 avg, implies trade
will add about 0.1 pt to Q3 growth.