US dollar slides after big miss on the ADP employment report

In the battle between a random number generator and the ADP employment report, the number generator is winning but that hasn't stopped the market from thinking that this might be the month that ADP correctly predicts non-farm payrolls.

ADP employment showed just 374K jobs created in the US in August compared to 640K expected. Of course, we don't need to go back very far to see a huge miss. In July ADP employment was 330K and non-farm payrolls were 943K.

Guy Lebas tweet ADP

At the same time, you would think that the largest payroll company in the United States has some reliable payroll data.

Some corners of the market are still giving ADP the benefit of the doubt and the US dollar has skidded lower. USD/JPY is down to 110.03 from 110.38 before the report. There have been similar moves elsewhere.


The better reason to sell the dollar at the moment is the rising number of data misses. Consumer confidence yesterday was a big miss and that follows soft retail sales, UMich confidence and several regional manufacturing surveys.