The US dollar is near the lows of the day after the durable goods orders data.
Factoring in revisions and everything else it’s a decent report. The kicker is in the shipments portion of the report, which is important because it’s shipments that factor into GDP and Q2 GDP revisions will be released tomorrow. The final month of Q2 was June and shipments were revised to +1.2% from +0.5%. That adds an upward bias to GDP; the consensus is +3.9% vs +4.0% originally reported. The market is now expecting 4.0% or more.
At the same time, we’re seeing that the US dollar needs increasingly good data to sustain the rally. Overbought indicators are flashing red and it’s a good week (long weekend coming/end of summer) for a bit a US dollar consolidation or a correction before the longer term USD bull market gets more traction.
Update: To underscore the point, Goldman Sachs just raised its Q2 tracking estimate to 3.8% from 3.7%.
