The shutdown continues and the worries pile up
We might be talking about the factory orders report today but alas, the US government remains shut down and that means it's postponed until Trump gets his border wall money or backs down or declares a national emergency and uses national defense money to build it.
Instead, all the focus is on the ISM non-manufacturing index which is due out at 1500 GMT and forecast to dip to 59.0 from 60.7.
There is genuine uncertainty about the strength and path of the US dollar and the ISM survey is a forward-looking indicator on services, which are about 85% of the US economy. Last week, the ISM manufacturing report slowed dramatically in a sign of trouble due to the trade war. Is it just trade, or is the economy suffering from rate rises and broader malaise? Today's report will be a big clue.
The US dollar is under modest pressure across the board with the Swiss franc leading the way. Expect a big swing on any miss in the data.
Other events to watch today:
1500 GMT - Canada Ivey PMI
1740 GMT - The Fed's Bostic speaks
