Highlights of the January personal income and spending report:
- Prior was 1.7%
- PCE core MoM +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
- Prior MoM +0.2%
- Deflator YoY +1.7% vs +1.8% expected
- Prior deflator YoY +1.6%
- Deflator MoM +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
- Prior MoM deflator +0.3%
Consumers spending and income for January:
- Personal income +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%
- Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)
- Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.1%
Inflation was a touch lower than expected while income beat estimates but spending was light. The prior revision to Dec spending mitigates some of the miss on spending but consumers were still sluggish in Q4 and that carried over into Q1, despite higher earnings. Overall, the US economy was in a solid place early in the year but coronavirus is a black swan that could change everything.
