Higher than expected deficit for December

  • US December budget deficit $13.5 billion versus $11 billion expected
  • December 2017 budget deficit was $-23 billion
  • US fiscal 2019 year-to-date deficit $-319 billion versus comparable fiscal 2018 deficit of $-225 billion
  • budget outlays $326 billion versus $349 billion in 2017
  • receipts $313 billion versus $326 billion in December 2017

The deficit numbers are difficult to compare due to timing of payments and receipts, but the fiscal year numbers tend to show a more realistic view of the trends. For the fiscal year which started in October, the deficit is showing a much bigger deterioration (-$319B vs -$225B). The tax cuts are a drag on receipts, but are not being offset fully by receipts from the higher growth or cuts in spending.

Some line items from the receipt side vs last year:

  • corporate tax receipts $46.75 billion versus $60.627 billion in 2017. Down -22.9%. For the fiscal year to date, corporate income tax receipts are down -17.3%.
  • individual income tax receipts $150.55 billion versus $164.31 billion in 2017. Down -8.4%. For the fiscal year to date, individual tax receipts are down -3.5%
  • employment tax for Social Security $93.928 billion versus $83.975 billion. Up 11.9%. For the fiscal year to date, Social Security receipts are up 6.1%
  • Custom duties (tariffs). $5.992 billion versus $3.107 billion, up 92.9%. For the fiscal year custom duties are up 88.7%

On the spending side vs. last year..

  • national defense $56.94 billion versus $59.149 billion, -3.7%. For the fiscal year defense spending is up 8.0%.
  • agriculture $7.602 billion versus $3.577 billion, +112.5%. For the fiscal year agricultural outlays are up 9.9%
  • education $8.694 billion versus $6.771 billion, +28.4%. For the fiscal year education is up 18.6%.
  • Medicare $23.933 billion versus $46.312 billion, -48.3%. For the fiscal year Medicare is up 20.6%
  • health $47.504 billion versus $44.416 billion, +7%. For the fiscal year health outlays are up 7.3%.
  • Social Security $83.895 billion versus $79.916 billion, +5.0%. for the fiscal year Social Security spending is up 5.1%.
  • veterans benefits $16.096 billion versus $23.6509, -31.9%. For the fiscal year veterans benefits are up 25.5%
  • interest $34.175 billion versus $23.952 billion, +42.7%. For the fiscal year interest is up 18.6%