Stimulus checks and growth in jobs are expected to contribute to a strong result for US retail sales in March
- The data is due Thursday 15 April 2021 at 1230GMT
- Headline expected at 5.8% m/m vs. February at -3.0%
Earlier preview is here:
- expecting +10% m/m
- citing $1,400 stimulus checks hitting accounts around March 17
- back end of the month should be very strong
- auto sales, highest level in four years
- restaurants are getting more crowded, with outdoor seating
- we expect to see some very strong retail sales and industrial production numbers
- Improved weather will play its part after February's winter storms disrupted logistics and deterred people from going out to spend money. March will consequently see a bounce back. The latest $1400 individual stimulus payments will help further lift retail sales, although given it came towards the back end of the month we are likely to see something closer to a 5%month-on-month gain rather than the 8% gain of January when stimulus payments of $600 were paid out at the beginning of the month.
- Moreover, with more restaurants and entertainment venues opening up and travel showing a strong recovery there are clearly more options to use the extra money and we increasingly expect to see spending move away from physical "things" toward services and "experiences"
Via Bank of America analysts:
- We expect the March retail sales report to be outstanding with headline and core retail sales both surging more than 11%”
- Stimulus, reopening, and better weather served as a potent cocktail for consumer spending