The week ends with tier 1 data
It's been a quiet week on the US economic calendar but it ends with a big report. The July US advance retail sales report is due at 1230 GMT (8:30 am ET). The consensus is for a 2.0% m/m rise after the 7.5% jump in June.
The upside risk is from autos, where indications continue to show strong demand for used vehicles in particular. The market may discount that and focus on the control group, which excludes autos, gas and building supplies. It's forecast to rise a modest 0.8%, with top-ranked (on this indicator) Goldman Sachs estimating it at just +0.1%.
Looking at payments data from JPMorgan, there was an uptick in spending in early July but it sagged late in the month.
A risk I see in emphasizing card payments is that they may overestimate total spending because of the pandemic-preference to use cards, rather than handling cash.
