The USDCHF rose in sympathy with the dollars gain in early trade, and should have gotten a further boost on weaker than expected CPI data (0.1% MoM and -1% YoY), but instead the pair moved to the downside (CHF stronger). Perhaps the market reversed on a reassessment of the pairs initial move. The CHF can be a flight to safety currency and with anxiety from the France and Greece elections, a move into the CHF might be a safer alternative. In addition to that influence, the gap from Friday (high was 0.9183) is also a reason to be more bearish – especially if traders have a fundamental and technical reason to sell.
The move down got that technical reason to sell on the move below the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) at the 0.9243 level, and has continued that intraday trend down into the NY session. The pair, however, has found support/profit taking buyers between the gap from Friday at the 0.9183 and the 100 day MA at the 0.9202 (not shown) . The low reached 0.91962 so far.
The price is now back above the 100 day MA and has a decision to make. Will the buyers take back some of the intraday control by pushing the price above intraday trendline resistance and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute at the 0.9220 level (blue line in chart below) , or will traders sell against these levels for another run at the gap? I would expect sellers on rallies with close stops above 0.2924 as intraday traders remain in control for the time being.
