Market brushes aside ADP data
"Moderate" growth is better than "slight-to-moderate" growth and the fractionally more upbeat assessment of US growth in the Beige Book has helped to boost USD/JPY to the highs of the week.
After ADP employment data earlier in the day, USD/JPY touched the lowest since early January but it has stormed back. The main boosts came from continued positive talk about US-Mexico tariffs and a better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing survey.
Technically a close up here would be a positive signal for the bulls. It would be a fairly standard retracement to get up to 109.00/10. That could happen with a bit of a re-think on the Fed. Current pricing suggests a 68% chance of a cut on July 31 and three cuts as the most-likely path before year end. That's too aggressive for what we know right now.
