Tokyo CPI data is available earlier than the National CPI. The inflation data for August is on Friday 31 August
- Due at 2330GMT
Tokyo CPI y/y
- expected 1.0%, prior was 0.9%
Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y
- expected 0.8%, prior was 0.8%
Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y
- expected 0.5%, prior was 0.5%
- this measure the closest to the US measure of core inflation. As you can see, well under the BOJ target of 2%
Nomura preview the data:
- August Tokyo-area core CPI (all items, less fresh food) (Friday): We forecast Tokyo area core CPI inflation for August of +0.8% y-o-y, the same as in July.
- We think the BOJ's version of core core CPI inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, will come at +0.5%, also the same, as in July.
- The corporate goods price index (CGPI) data for July showed prices for consumer durable goods down 1.8% y-o-y, a sharper decline than in June (-1.3%), and although we think there is likely to be downward pressure on retail prices too, we do not think this will result in a notable slowdown in core CPI inflation for August.
- In August 2017, the y-o-y inflation rate for medical fees was boosted by revisions to the high-cost medical care benefit system. We highlight that second-stage revisions are taking place in August 2018. There are many uncertainties at present, and we do not know if the boost to core inflation from these revisions will be larger or smaller than the first-stage revisions in August 2017.
