I'm not sure there is that much value in claims
Are weekly jobless claims an indication on how many Americans lost their jobs last week, or on the government's ability to count them?
There are widespread reports of backlogs and the inability of workers to file for jobless claims. Estimates range from 1.5m to 6.5m for today's report, which is due at the bottom of the hour.
Would a number at either end of the range really tell us anything about the economy? We know that millions of people are losing their jobs.
Look at Canada, which has a national system of unemployment reporting (excluding Quebec) and claims have risen by 2.1 million in two weeks. Canada is one-tenth the size of the US. That's a full 10% of the workforce and compares to 400K total job losses during the financial crisis. I don't see why the US should be any different.
As for the market reaction, I expect to see USD/JPY kick one way or the other and I would fade a rally. But unless there is something truly ghastly, I don't think a drop will last either.
Also on the economic calendar today we get factory orders at 10 am ET (1400 GMT). We also get US and Canadian trade balance data at 1230 GMT.
