Why non-farm payrolls could miss the 1350K estimate
The jobs report is due on Friday
Economist Christophe Barraud breaks down tomorrow's jobs report and concludes that risks are to the downside for the 1350K consensus but there are some competing factors:
- Real-time estimates show total employment improving by 2.1 pp
- Homebase data suggests a slight improvement, though largely flat
- Labor Department data also showed that employment conditions have improved a bit since mid-July with a fall in jobless claims
- ADP employment was disappointing but it's been repeatedly soft
- Census workers will add around 235K temporary jobs
- Seasonal adjustments could be a problem but back-to-school teacher hiring may have been pushed back and that could weigh.
Estimates range from -100K to +2400K. The report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday.