Nick Timiraos is tweeting that Goldman has now pushed the first cut to June from May joining others. Fed officials have been pushing "later vs sooner". The analysts are now seeing it more and the market has also pushed up yields have pushed yields higher as well.
Although the US 10-year is still well off the 2023 high at 5.02%, it is near the high from October 2022 at 4.33%.
PS Goldman now sees 4 cuts in 2024 down from 5 cuts.
Update: Here's what Goldman Sachs has to say.
Comments this week from Fed officials and the minutes to the January FOMC meeting suggest that the first rate cut is unlikely to come as early as our previous forecast of the May meeting. We have therefore dropped our forecast of a May cut and now expect 4 cuts total in 2024 (vs. 5 previously) in June, July, September, and December, followed by 4 more cuts in 2025 (vs. 3 cuts previously), to the same terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%.
MAIN POINTS: 1. In a speech this evening, Governor Waller said that he is "going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data before I can judge whether January was a speed bump or a pothole" and that "delaying rate cuts by a few months" is unlikely to hurt the economy. Because there are only two rounds of inflation data and a little over two months until the May FOMC meeting, his comments suggest to us that a rate cut as early as May, which we had previously expected, is unlikely.
