China's factory activity unexpectedly pulled back in October, dropping convincingly back into contraction. There was the week-long holiday at the beginning of the month but that was a known known factored into estimates.

There had been some 'green shoots' of economic recovery in China, in the wake of a raft of government and central bank measures to shore up growth, including modest interest rate cuts, increased cash injections and aggressive fiscal stimulus, but this result will set those improvements back somewhat.

china October pmi miss 31 October 2023

The Composite comes in at 50.7

  • prior 52.0


China has two primary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys - the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

  • The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China's private sector.
  • Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey.
  • Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China's manufacturing sector.