Headlines:
- Kremlin: All Russian plans in Ukraine will be fulfilled and in the time frames outlined
- Ukraine presidential adviser says talks with Russia are ongoing
- Ukraine on talks with Russia: Our positions are unchanged
- Russia: Further developments in Ukraine depends on Kyiv's willingness to compromise
- Russia says it may be forced to pay FX debt in rubles amid sanctions
- China reportedly to lock down Jilin province from Monday
- SNB total sight deposits w.e. 11 March CHF 728.0 bn vs CHF 725.7 bn prior
- Germany February wholesale price index +1.7% vs +2.3% m/m prior
Markets:
- EUR leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%
- US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 2.065%
- Gold down 1.3% to $1,959
- WTI down 5.7% to $103.13
- Bitcoin flat at $38,870
There was a bit of hopeful optimism on talks between Russia and Ukraine from the weekend and markets stuck to that for the most part - even when Moscow had continuously shot that down as the situation on the ground remains unchanged.
The euro rose alongside stocks and bond yields, while commodities retreated with the "war favourites" i.e. oil and gold suffered.
EUR/USD moved up from 1.0910 to 1.0990 before retreating back towards 1.0950 upon testing its key hourly moving averages. The push higher in Treasury yields helped to propel USD/JPY to test 118.00 for the first time in over five years.
Meanwhile, the aussie slumped with AUD/USD sticking around 0.7240-50 levels for the most part - down 0.7% on the day.
Equities are holding higher with stocks looking to turn the tide after rebounding in trading last week. The DAX is up 2.8%, CAC 40 up 1.8%, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%.
Elsewhere, gold retreated from $1,975 and is down over 1% now to $1,959. Oil is one of the bigger losers with WTI falling nearly 6% to $103 while Brent is down close to 5% to near $107 at the moment.
The so-called "peace" trade is playing out but we are still subject to headline risks, so just be wary.
In the meantime, expect the market focus to also slowly shift towards the Fed on Wednesday.
