Covid cases in South Africa remain high but the spot to focus on is Gauteng, which is the province where the outbreak began. This chart shows the 7-day average of new cases.


It's a remarkably quick fall.

Now I'm hesitant to read too much into it because positivity was 27.6% today and there's a good chance that most people who have it aren't being tested. There's also a vast migration of people from Johannesburg and Pretoria back home to rural areas for the festive period.

At the same time, the number of people in hospitals with covid-19 fell 25% last week to 5,600. Much of that is incidental infections in hospital (people who were in the hospital already and got it) but there's no sign of hospitalizations anywhere near previous waves.