A note from Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team on what the seasonals show for the year ahead of a US Presdiential election:
since 1932 the 12 months heading into an election has seen the S&P 500 averaging a 7% return vs. 95 in noon-election years
since 1984 the S&P 500 has chalked up an average return of 4% in the preceding 12 months
Summary comments:
- “Profit growth is typically strong in election years while valuations move sideways”
- “Info Tech has usually been the worst performing sector in the year ahead of the election. Defensive sectors tend to perform best, led by Utilities and Consumer Staples.”
