A note from Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team on what the seasonals show for the year ahead of a US Presdiential election:

since 1932 the 12 months heading into an election has seen the S&P 500 averaging a 7% return vs. 95 in noon-election years

since 1984 the S&P 500 has chalked up an average return of 4% in the preceding 12 months

Summary comments:

  • “Profit growth is typically strong in election years while valuations move sideways”
  • “Info Tech has usually been the worst performing sector in the year ahead of the election. Defensive sectors tend to perform best, led by Utilities and Consumer Staples.”
From Goldman Sachs' daily look at global markets, in summary: