The huge oil news is here:

Goldman Sachs have pumped up their oil price forecasts in a Sunday note:

  • December 2023 Brent forecast is US$95, from $90 previously
  • December 2024 forecast is US$100 from $97

Goldman Sachs reasoning:

  • Nine members of OPEC+ announced today a surprise "voluntary" collective output cut totalling 1.66mn b/d which will take effect from May till the end of 2023.
  • As we have argued, OPEC+ has very significant pricing power relative to the past, and today's surprise cut is consistent with their new doctrine to act pre-emptively because they can without significant losses in market share.
  • As we already assumed that Russia cuts would extend into 2023H2, we are lowering our OPEC+ production end-2023 forecast by 1.1mb/d.
  • Incorporating this significantly lower OPEC+ supply, slightly lower demand, and the modest French SPR release, we have nudged up our Brent forecasts by $5/bbl to $95/bbl (vs. 90 previously) for December 2023, and to $100 (vs. 97) for December 2024.


You can expect more forecasts to be raised.

oil barrel 01 June 2022