Goldman Sachs has forecast a 21% return on commodities over a 12-month horizon
- S&P GSCI Commodity Index
- looking for +31% in energy
- and +17.8% in industrial metals
Citing:
- improving cyclical backdrop
- significant carry returns from structural tailwinds
- see hedging value against negative supply shocks
- OPEC-driven declines in oil inventories
- Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have finished raising interest rates, likely to ease pressure on GDP growth and support commodities demand
- sharp tightening in copper and aluminium stocks into the middle of the decade, driving up prices from the second half of 2024
- "Energy and gold can also be an effective hedge against negative supply shocks, from geopolitical or other developments, in scenarios where other assets (especially risk assets) suffer from lower growth"
