Goldman Sachs has forecast a 21% return on commodities over a 12-month horizon

  • S&P GSCI Commodity Index
  • looking for +31% in energy
  • and +17.8% in industrial metals


  • improving cyclical backdrop
  • significant carry returns from structural tailwinds
  • see hedging value against negative supply shocks
  • OPEC-driven declines in oil inventories
  • Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have finished raising interest rates, likely to ease pressure on GDP growth and support commodities demand
  • sharp tightening in copper and aluminium stocks into the middle of the decade, driving up prices from the second half of 2024
  • "Energy and gold can also be an effective hedge against negative supply shocks, from geopolitical or other developments, in scenarios where other assets (especially risk assets) suffer from lower growth"
From Goldman Sachs' daily look at global markets, in summary: