And that probably says a lot more than it should. Once again, the second key hurdle ahead of the FOMC meeting next month just serves to validate the current market pricing more than anything else. That being no more rate hikes for this year and a rate cut to come possibly as early as March next year.


In terms of September odds, there is a 89% probability of there being no change to interest rates at the moment. That is not much of a change compared to before the US CPI report yesterday.

If you're wondering why the dollar rallied back, I would argue it was more so the case that traders who reacted hastily to the inflation numbers got a little too attached to the data and did not read into the bigger picture overview above.

Adding to that, the fact that equities failed to hold on to gains was also a poor sign of confidence for risk assets and that inadvertently also provided the dollar a boost.