I sent
ISM nonmanufacturing index
  • Prior month 50.5
  • ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 52.0 estimate
  • Nonmanufacturing business activity January 55.8 vs 55.8 last
  • Employment.50.5 vs 43.8 last month
  • New orders 55.0 vs 52.8 last month
  • Prices Paid 64.0 vs 57.4 last month

Other components:

  • Inventories 49.1 vs 49.6 last month
  • Supplier deliveries 52.4 versus 49.5 last month
  • Backlog of orders 51.4 versus 49.4 last month
  • New export orders 56.1 versus 50.4 last month.
  • Imports 59.9 versus 49.3 last month
  • Inventory sentiment 59.3 versus 55.3 last month

What respondents are saying:

“Supply chain disruptions forced a change to min/max (inventory calculations) to assure on-time materials; now that most disruptions are over, those calculations are being normalized, which will slow down ordering while inventories right-size. The district is seeing higher-than-normal turnover as workers are being aggressively pursued by districts offering higher wages. Water sales are lower than expected due to unseasonably cool weather. This will put pressure on rates, along with an increase in wages in order to attract and retain quality employees.” [Utilities]
“Transportation impacts of the Suez Canal, due to unrest in the Red Sea and the issues at the Panama Canal are impacting both costs and schedules for the transport of global goods.” [Construction]
“Last year was tough for our business. We are hoping that the economy improves and things stabilize in 2024. It’s a presidential election year, so we’re hopeful.” [Wholesale Trade]
“Economy signals are mixed. Some sectors are booming and some — like solar and wind power, ship building and electric vehicles — are slowing down. Other downward-trending sectors are iron and steel, paper and communication equipment. But overall, the economy is in good shape and there is no imminent threat of a recession.” [Retail Trade]
“Economic indicators generally look good; however, there is still some uncertainty. We continue to see more demand for our services, but this may not be indicative: Our services are always more in demand when the economy is worse than when it is better. It would be amiss not to mention that we are still seeing the effect of people returning to offices, which impacts demand. Though demand has continually increased, it is not at pre-pandemic levels.” [Transportation Equipment]
“Increase in activity; expecting a busy 2024.” [Finance & Insurance]
“Most companies I work with are gearing up for a tough 2024. Some may be overreacting, but there is a general sense that election years in the U.S. result in unrest, which is causing everyone to be conservative with spend.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
“The writers and actors strike has impacted our business significantly. This will not be a great year for movie exhibitors.” [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
“Respiratory sicknesses — COVID-19, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and flu — continue to keep our facility hopping to treat patients.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
“(Looking to rebound) after a significant downturn in December, which was likely due to extended plant shutdowns, customer inventory burns and lingering effects from the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike.” [Wholesale Trade]

The US dollar has moved higher after the report with the EURUSD making a new session low at 1.0727. The GBPUSD is also making a new low trading down to 1.2527. The USDJPY is trading at 148.64 as it moves back toward the 148.80 resistance target area.

In the US debt market, 10 year yield is trading up your 11 basis points at 4.142%. The two year yield is up nine basis points at 4.46%