Via a Deutsche Bank note on Friday saying, in brief:

  • We close out a difficult week with Amazon’s earnings from last night setting a more positive tone
  • a lot of concerns over where we are in the cycle
  • However, one has to consider how much seasonals have played a part recently.
  • The S&P ... stagnation since the summer is not unusual. In an average year, equities flatline from early July to late October with the second half of that typically seeing declines.
  • On average today is the day it all turns around with the Santa rally commencing thereafter.

DB is not convinced but does acknowledge the seasonals.

weekly spx 30 October 2023