Morgan Stanley has trimmed its oil price forecasts:

Q2 2023 Brent forecast to US$85/bbl from 90/bbl

  • Q3 to $90/bbl from $95/bbl
  • Q4 to $87.50/bbl from $95/bbl

2024 forecast to $85/bbl from 95/bbl

Chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley Martijn Rats comments:

  • OPEC probably needs to do this to stand still
  • the decision “reveals something, it gives a signal of where we are in the oil market. And look, let’s be honest about this, when demand is roaring…then OPEC doesn’t need to cut”

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The forecasts are in contrast to:

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The gap in oil on Sunday evening's (US Eastern time) reopening for the week was on the back of the OPEC+ cuts. SInce then the price has worked a little back into the gap. Plenty more to go.

oil morgan stanley outlook forecast 04 April 2023