Morgan Stanley has trimmed its oil price forecasts:

Q2 2023 Brent forecast to US$85/bbl from 90/bbl

  • Q3 to $90/bbl from $95/bbl
  • Q4 to $87.50/bbl from $95/bbl

2024 forecast to $85/bbl from 95/bbl

Chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley Martijn Rats comments:

  • OPEC probably needs to do this to stand still
  • the decision “reveals something, it gives a signal of where we are in the oil market. And look, let’s be honest about this, when demand is roaring…then OPEC doesn’t need to cut”


The forecasts are in contrast to:


The gap in oil on Sunday evening's (US Eastern time) reopening for the week was on the back of the OPEC+ cuts. SInce then the price has worked a little back into the gap. Plenty more to go.

oil morgan stanley outlook forecast 04 April 2023