Putin MBS

There are some smiles in OPEC countries today as oil climbs another $0.60 and consolidates the recent break to the highs of the year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the upside momentum continuing. They've bumped up their assumptions for Q3 by $10 to $90 barrel for brent crude. Currently brent is trading at $85.85 with futures at $81.50 at the end of Q3.

Morgan Stanley lowered its supply forecast for OPEC and Russia by 0.2-0.3 million barrel per day and sees a modest deficit in second quarter, increasing to a larger deficit in the third quarter as demand ramps up.

For all the talk of geopolitical risks, Morgan Stanley believes there's actually a risk discount in oil based on fears that OPEC cohesion deteriorates.

"Every month that OPEC discipline remains in-place, Brent flat price will likely continue to catch up with where inventories and time spreads already are," MS writes.

Brent crude
Brent crude daily