Barclays Research discusses NZD outlook and adopts a neutral bias in the near-term.
"The NZD will likely track broader risk sentiment but could outperform the AUD, especially on any derisking on data, developments or ahead of the RBA (5 Apr). Amid improving global risk sentiment and a continued rise in commodity prices, NZDUSD is extending its uptrend after breaking above 200dma (0.6913) last week," Barclays notes.
"With no domestic catalyst until the 13 April RBNZ meeting, the NZD is likely to remain driven by global developments. 1y RBNZ OIS pricing moved 18bp higher last week to 3.13%, with markets still assigning a relatively high probability to a 50bp move (43bp priced in) at the next meeting. Looking ahead, we expect the NZD to grind higher towards 0.71 by end-2022, after near-term consolidation, with terms of trade improvement, reopening of its economy and RBNZ tightening," Barclays adds.
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