Or more specifically, big data. Markets sidestepped the landmine that is the ADP employment report yesterday - not that it is one that has been a credible indicator these days. I mentioned how you can pretty much play a game of roulette and it's the same as trying to guess the ADP number. That's all you need to know about its reliability.
In any case, we are to see markets now shift their attention to the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow instead. Now, that will be a big one and expect there to be plenty of volatility in the aftermath.
The expectation is for the headline figure to come in at +205K in February, down from the +517K seen in January.
The other key details to watch will be the unemployment rate (3.4% estimate) and average earnings (+0.3% m/m, +4.7% y/y).
With the focus being on the payrolls tomorrow, don't expect much in terms of firm direction in markets today and in the lead up to the big release.
Fed fund futures are pointing to a 76% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in March, though other market-implied probabilities are sitting closer to 68%.
The point is that markets are still largely leaning towards a 50 bps move, even with Powell's slight pushback yesterday.
It's all about the data to guide the pricing and view ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the two big ones to watch will arguably be tomorrow's jobs report and the consumer inflation report next week.
