We're deep in the fog of war today.

There are many reports that Israeli fighters have entered Gaza in the northeastern corner of the Gaza strip in Beit Hanoun. Throughout the Gaza strip, there are reports of heavy airstrikes, perhaps the heaviest yet. There are also reports of tanks nearby and perhaps anti-tank weapons.

I don't see any confirmation of this, though there are many purported photos and videos. Adding to the belief that a ground incursion has begun is that telecommunications have been broadly cut off in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that the US is trying to convince Israel not to launch a ground offensive and instead be more surgical because a ground offensive risks starting a broader war. They site five US officials.

Administration officials have become highly concerned about the potential repercussions of a full ground assault, the officials said, and they increasingly doubt that it would achieve Israel’s stated goal of eliminating Hamas. They also are concerned that it could derail negotiations to free nearly 200 hostages, particularly as diplomats think they have made “significant” advances in recent days to free a number of them, potentially including some Americans, one of the officials said.

Who knows what to believe. This all comes after earlier reports from CNN on a 'breakthrough' in hostage negotiations.

In any case, it looks like good traders have already made up their minds.

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