A Reuters poll of 70 economists says:

  • BOE to hold the bank rate at 5.25% when they next meet on February 1
  • The central bank is to cut bank rate to 5% in Q2 of 2024. That is faster than the Q3 cut from the December poll.
  • UK economy to expand at 0.4% in 2024, 1.2% in 2025 (same as the December poll)

The market is pricing in a 50-50 chance of a quarter-point cut in May. Inflation is expected to drop below the target to 1.9% exporter and remain around that level until mid 2025. Inflation reached high of 11.1% in 2022 but increased slightly to 4.0% in December. The BOE targets 2.0%.