If you recall how trading went last week, it was a case of markets struggling with what to do in the aftermath of the US CPI data. However, the bond market was steadfast as sellers continued to push their agenda and yields moved higher. Eventually, the rest of the market listened and on Friday, it looked like we were on the verge of a trending break.
However, that all turned around when 10-year Treasury yields failed to seal a break above its December high of 3.90% and reversed lower before the end of the day:
As that played out, the dollar also saw gains dissipate and failed to clinch any major technical breaks as outlined earlier here.
Going back to the bond market, it has been a tricky start to the year with January observing a rally in bonds only for that to completely falter in February. That is a sign that traders are struggling to find a balance on the Fed outlook and how much higher rates might possibly go in the months ahead.
However, the good news is that the technical battle lines are quite well defined at the moment. The December high at 3.90% will be a key topside level to watch for 10-year yields in the US with the downside level to keep an eye out for being the 200-day moving average (green line) and the recent lows so far this year closer to 3.32% to 3.33%.
If we get a break on either side of that, expect other assets to also respond in kind to what the bond market has to say.
