UBS comments on 'Super Tuesday' (I posted very brief results here if you missed the wall-to-wall media coverage), saying

  • opinion polls seem to be the clear loser. The Republican primaries were the main contested votes, and there notable errors in predictions of former US President Trump’s victory margin.

UBS go on to explaining the issue with this:

  • Poor polling predictions are a problem for markets. Markets rarely price political risk well.
  • ... there is clearly a chance polls mislead markets and November produces a Brexit or “Dewey defeats Truman” surprise.

Yes to the Brexit surprise, that was a shock and markets were shunted around on the wild response.

Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden by a larger than expected margin.