The implied odds of a 100 bps Fed hike are sitting at 25% today after dipping to 21% yesterday on softer core retail sales.
The main item on the agenda today is the UMich consumer sentiment survey at 10 am ET. The prior reading was 55.1 and the consensus is 60.0 as sentiment often tracks gasoline prices.
The market will also be closely watching 1-year and 3-5 year inflation expectations. They've dipped lately and a continuation lower would give the Fed some minor comfort.
