ICYMI from Friday, Westpac update their AUD view 1 - 3 months:
- For some weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, A$ was easily the strongest currency in the G10, boosted by the extraordinary surge in energy and metals prices which is strengthening Australia’s already large trade surpluses.
- The Aussie is still a clear outperformer in the G10 over that time but is somewhat fragile against a US dollar bolstered by the Fed’s accelerated tightening cycle.
- Turbulent equity markets are also keeping a lid on A$, so near-term trade below 0.70 is plausible.
- Multi-week/month however, a recovery to 0.74 and then higher remains likely. The RBA’s scramble to deal with surging inflation pressures has driven a sharp movement in the 2-year AU-US yield spread in favour of the Aussie. Moreover, investor concerns over China’s current lockdowns in some cities should ease over time as China’s policy focus turns once again to infrastructure-led growth.
