The recession narrative was flipped on its head today on a strong US PMI from S&P Global. The survey data is a forward-looking indicator and highlights an economy that wasn't bruised by the March bank rout. In addition, the report highlighted growing price pressures in the service sector.
"The latest reading is indicative of GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2%," said Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
It's only one data point and there are plenty of others pointing to mounting weakness but it certainly raises the possibility that the Fed hiking cycle won't end on May 3. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a hike in two weeks and is now pricing in a small chance of another one after that on June 14.
The market has been struggling with the potential for a hard landing recently due to the Fed staying overly tight but market participants will also have to weigh the chance of the economy breezing through 5% rates. One area in particular is getting fresh attention -- housing -- as bidding wars appear in parts of the United States. Yesterday, home builder D.R. Horton highlighted strength in the sector.
The bears aren't going to give up easily but uncertainty is rising and the PMI from S&P Global is an indicator I like.
