Everyone in the oil market wants discipline in US shale but at $78/barrel there is still plenty of money to be made that is keeping the taps running.
The EIA now sees US crude production up 260k bpd in 2024 compared to a rise of 170k bpd in the previous forecast. That 90k increase isn't particularly meaningful in a global context but it's another headache for oil. To be sure, the pace of US production growth is slowing and the shale treadmill is relentless but I don't see any signs of a cliff.
US production will be 13.19 million barrels per day this year, the EIA predicts. That's the most any country has ever produced but they now forecast it will rise to 13.65 mbpd in 2025. Another 460k bpd next year combined, Canada, Guyana and capacity growth in the UAE may set the table for a battle for market share.
The US demand forecast for 2024 was unchanged but in 2025 it was bumped up by 100,000 bpd.
Meanwhile, sub-$2 natural gas finally made gas producers cut drilling with production at 103.35 bcfd, down from 104.37 bcfd forecast in February.
WTI crude was last trading flat on the day.
