US employment trends for June rises to 119.38 from 118.88 last month

The US employment trends for June 2022 from the conference Board came in at 119.38. That is up from the revised 118.88 in May. The May number was originally 119.77. For the full report, CLICK HERE.

When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months.

Frank Steemers senior economist at the conference Board said:

• While the Employment Trends Index rebounded in June, it remains below the index readings from March and April 2022
• Moreover, a range of other economic indicators beyond the Employment Trends Index point to an economy that is slowing.
• Usually, it takes a few months for hiring decisions to adjust to changes in economic activity.
• We expect positive, but decelerating, job growth over the next months
• Currently, the labor market is still strong and labor shortages are severe.
• This picture could change towards the end of 2022 and early 2023.
• With inflation still elevated and the Fed expected to continue to raise interest rates rapidly, the risk of a short and mild recession is growing.
• Employers may reduce hiring—and possibly implement furloughs and layoffs, depending on the severity of a potential economic contraction.
• By early 2023, there could possibly be monthly job losses—and in that case, the unemployment rate would tick up

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)

• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of EmployeesHired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

The BLS jobs report on employment was released on Friday. The unemployment rate came in at 3.6% (near low levels) and the job gains at a better-than-expected 372K.

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