• Prior +353K (revised to 229K)
  • Two-month net revision -167K vs +126K prior
  • Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.7% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
  • Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.3% vs 7.2% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Prior avg hourly earnings +0.6% m/m (revised to +0.5%)
  • Average hourly earnings +4.3% y/y vs +4.4% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +223K vs +160K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls -4K vs +10K expected
  • Household survey +63K vs -31K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment K vs -121K prior
US nonfarm payrolls chart Feb 2024
US nonfarm payrolls chart

Heading into the report, the market was pricing in 95 bps in Fed rate cuts this year and USD/JPY was trading at 147.09. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points and US 10-year yields were down 3.1 bps to 4.06%.

The headline here was strong but the details were not. Unemployment rose, there was a big negative revision and -- critically -- wage growth reversed. The market is now pricing in 97 bps in easing and USD/JPY is down to 146.81.